Red Lines in Syria

If the Assad regime has used chemical weapons and crossed the red line President Obama warned against, urgent international action is needed. This does not mean the United States should take military action. Instead Washington should work through the United Nations to confirm the evidence and if necessary mobilize diplomatic action against those responsible.

The first task is to get UN inspectors into Syria to verify if chemical weapons have been used, and by whom. The UN Secretary General has assembled a team of experts, but the Assad regime so far has refused the demand for unrestricted access and has denied them entry. The U.S. should support efforts to negotiate terms of reference for the inspection team so that it can enter the country and begin collecting evidence.

It is important to acknowledge that the information available so far is very uneven and limited. No soil samples are available from a physical site. Most of the evidence reportedly comes from tissue and blood samples that have been transmitted by multiple handlers. The ‘chain of custody’ of the detected elements and the identities of those responsible remain unclear.

It is not clear who may have used chemical weapons. Initially the Assad regime claimed that the rebels were responsible for the injuries and deaths that were reported last month. The rebels claim the government is responsible. The amounts of sarin and other toxic agents reportedly used were quite small. Some analysts have suggested that the use of chemical weapons shells may have been inadvertent. These and other questions need to be clarified before any action can be taken.

If the evidence shows that the Syrian government has indeed used these weapons, the Obama administration should work with key allies and members of Security Council to apply pressure on the Assad regime. The goal should be to take diplomatic steps that could lead to the adoption of targeted Security Council sanctions directed at those responsible for the command and control of chemical weapons systems. Hopefully Russia and China could be persuaded to support such measures. This would be a major diplomatic setback for Assad and would isolate and weaken his regime. None of this will be possible without firm evidence of actual chemical weapons use by government forces.

No justification exists for even considering military action. Crossing that dangerous red line would have severe negative consequences. It could involve U.S. forces in another Middle East conflict and perhaps drag us into the deadly Syrian civil war, worsening an already grave security crisis in the region. Bombing strikes would not be sufficient to neutralize Syria’s vast arsenal of chemical weapons, and they could cause explosions that would release the very deadly toxins we seek to contain. The use of force would squander any opportunity to win Russian and Chinese support for UN action and would hand the Assad regime a lifeline of continued diplomatic support.

Multilateral action through the UN offers the best path for determining if the regime has used chemical weapons and if so for mobilizing international pressure against those responsible.

8 thoughts on “Red Lines in Syria

  1. I support your first idea of helping UN get the inspectors in. Syria, if I’m not mistaken, is not yet a party to the Chemical Weapons Convention. They should be encouraged to join and reinforce the norm against weapons of mass destruction.

  2. Assad is confirmed to have WMD by the Israeli’s making the Colin Powell 45 minute speech pale in the overall farce. Connect the dots…

  3. We have no evidence that Syria has chemical weapons, or has used them. However, we do know that the United States, Israel and the UK have, and have used them on Vietnam – Agent Orange. On Gaza – White Phosphorous. On Afghanistan and Iraq – Depleted Uranium.
    I have not seen any request to take these countries to the UN…Any suggestions as to why not?.

  4. U.S.-backed rebels used sarin gas, not Syrian government – U.N. investigator 05 May 2013 U.N. human rights investigators have gathered testimony from casualties of Syria’s civil war and medical staff indicating that rebel forces have used the nerve agent sarin, one of the lead investigators said on Sunday. The United Nations independent commission of inquiry on Syria has not yet seen evidence of government forces having used chemical weapons, which are banned under international law, said commission member Carla Del Ponte. “Our investigators have been in neighboring countries interviewing victims, doctors and field hospitals and, according to their report of last week which I have seen, there are strong, concrete suspicions but not yet incontrovertible proof of the use of sarin gas, from the way the victims were treated,” Del Ponte said in an interview with Swiss-Italian television. “This was use on the part of the opposition, the rebels, not by the government authorities,” she added, speaking in Italian. [Well, knock me over with a medium-sized feather!]

    http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/05/05/us-syria-crisis-un-idUSBRE94409Z20130505

  5. Now that Israel and the US have confirmed that Israel has bombed Syria in the past few days – and more than once – can we have an update on the situation from David Cortright?
    While the US and the UN waffles Israel bombs and kills.

  6. Now that Israel has bombed Syria in the past few days, and more than once, where are those calling for action….against Israel.

    Now if Syria had bombed Israel!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

  7. http://sana.sy/eng/21/2013/05/06/480673.htm

    DAMASCUS, (SANA)- Foreign and Expatriates Ministry on Sunday said the flagrant Israeli aggression on sites for the Armed Forces in Syria stresses coordination between Israel and the terrorist groups and the takfiris who are affiliated to Jabhat al-Nusra, which is an offshoot of al-Qaeda.

    click on the link for the full article…

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